Calculated Risk
Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 928 InstitutionsThis is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 18, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)
Changes and comments from surferdude808:
The OCC released its actions through mid-April 2012, which contributed to many changes in the Unofficial Problem Bank List. For the week, there were eight additions and four removals that leave the list with 928 institutions and assets of $361.9 billion. The list is up from 924 institutions last week, which represents the first weekly count increase since February 24th, a period of 11 weeks. A year ago, the list held 988 institutions with assets of $423.8 billion.Earlier:
Among the removals is the failed Alabama Trust Bank, National Association, Sylacauga, AL ($56 million). There were two action terminations -- National Bank of Commerce, Birmingham, AL ($426 million) and BankTennessee, Collierville, TN ($247 million). The Peoples National Bank, Easley, SC ($324 million Ticker: PBCE) was removed because of an unassisted merger.
The eight additions this week are Sterling Bank and Trust, FSB, Southfield, MI ($762 million); The First National Bank of Talladega, Talladega, AL ($421 million); First Federal Bank Texas, Tyler, TX ($212 million Ticker: FFBT); Bank of St. Augustine, Saint Augustine, FL ($186 million); The First National Bank of Wamego, Wamego, KS ($159 million); The First National Bank of Hartford, Hartford, IL ($146 million); The First National Bank of Paducah, Paducah, TX ($56 million); and Flint River National Bank, Camilla, GA ($27 million). Flint River was removed from the list on April 20th when the OCC terminated an Formal Agreement, but the removal was inadvertent as they subsequently put the bank under a Consent Order.
Next week, we anticipate the FDIC will release the 2012q1 Official Problem Bank List and its enforcement actions through April 2012.
• Summary for Week Ending May 18th
• Schedule for Week of May 20th
Posted on 19 May 2012 | 7:53 pm
Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent compared to New Home SalesWe can't directly compare single family housing starts to new home sales. For starts of single family structures, the Census Bureau includes owner built units and units built for rent that are not included in the new home sales report. For an explanation, see from the Census Bureau: Comparing New Home Sales and New Residential Construction
We are often asked why the numbers of new single-family housing units started and completed each month are larger than the number of new homes sold. This is because all new single-family houses are measured as part of the New Residential Construction series (starts and completions), but only those that are built for sale are included in the New Residential Sales series.However it is possible to compare "Single Family Starts, Built for Sale" to New Home sales on a quarterly basis. The Q1 2012 quarterly report was released this week and showed there were 77,000 single family starts, built for sale, in Q1 2012, and that was below the 83,000 new homes sold for the same quarter (Using Not Seasonally Adjusted data for both starts and sales).
This graph shows the NSA quarterly intent for four start categories since 1975: single family built for sale, owner built (includes contractor built for owner), starts built for rent, and condos built for sale.
Click on graph for larger image.Single family starts built for sale were up about 17% compared to Q1 2011. Usually Q2 is the strongest quarter seasonally, and single family starts, built for sale, will probably be close to 100 thousand in Q2 - the highest level since 2008.
Owner built starts were up 30% year-over-year from a record low in Q1 2011. And condos built for sale are still near the record low.
The 'units built for rent' has increased significantly and is up about 41% year-over-year.
The second graph shows the difference (quarterly) between single family starts, built for sale and new home sales.
In 2005, and most of 2006, starts were higher than sales, and inventories of new homes increased. In 2008 and 2009, the home builders started far fewer homes than they sold as they worked off the excess inventory they had built up in 2005 and 2006.For the last 2+ years, the builders have sold a few more homes than they started, and inventory levels are now at record lows. In Q1, builders started 6 thousand fewer homes than they sold.
Note: new home sales are reported when contracts are signed, so it is appropriate to compare sales to starts (as opposed to completions). This is not perfect because of the handling of cancellations, but it does suggest the builders are keeping inventories.
Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending May 18th
• Schedule for Week of May 20th
Posted on 19 May 2012 | 4:00 pm
Schedule for Week of May 20thEarlier:
• Summary for Week Ending May 18th
There are two key housing reports to be released this week: April existing home sales on Tuesday, and April new home sales on Wednesday.
Other key reports include durable goods on Thursday, and two regional manufacturing surveys.
Note: The FDIC might release the Q1 Quarterly Bank Profile this week.
5:15 AM ET: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks in Tokyo on monetary policy.
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April). This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.66 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in March 2012 were 4.48 million SAAR.
Housing economist Tom Lawler is forecasting the NAR will report sales of 4.53 million in April.
A key will be inventory and months-of-supply.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May. The consensus is for a decrease to 11 for this survey from 14 in April (above zero is expansion).
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the March sales rate.
The consensus is for an increase in sales to 335 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in April from 328 thousand in March. This might be a little low based on recent builder comments and reports, and the homebuilder confidence survey. Watch for upward revisions to prior reports.
10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March 2012. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to be essentially unchanged at 371 thousand compared to 370 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods orders.
10:30 AM: New York Fed President William C. Dudley will speak on the regional economy and participate in a Q&A session with media. The New York Fed might release the Q1 2012 Report on Household Debt and Credit
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for May. The index was at 3 in April (above zero is expansion).
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for May). The consensus is for no change from the preliminary reading of 77.8.
SIFMA recommends US markets close at 2:00 PM ET in advance of the Memorial Day Holiday on May 28th.
Posted on 19 May 2012 | 11:31 am
Summary for Week of May 18thThe headlines last week were once again mostly about Europe and Greece, especially the possibility of Greece exiting the euro (aka "Grexit") after the next election on June 17th. The outcome of the election is uncertain, although most Greeks and European policymakers would like Greece to stay in the euro. One thing is certain, Greece will be in the headlines for at least another month.
Most of the US economic data was at or above expectations last week. An exception was the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, but that was partially offset by faster expansion in the Empire State survey.
Housing starts were solid as the slow housing recovery continues. Industrial production and capacity utilization increased, and the mortgage deliquencies are trending down.
The US economy remains sluggish. However, excluding Europe (and other international issues), the outlook would be improving. Two key questions are: what will happen in Greece and Europe? and how will that impact the US economy? I'll try to add some thoughts soon, but even with the problems in Europe, a recession in the US seems unlikely this year.
Here is a summary in graphs:
• Housing Starts increased to 717,000 in April
Click on graph for larger image.
Total housing starts were at 717 thousand (SAAR) in April, up 2.6% from the revised March rate of 699 thousand (SAAR). Note that March was revised up sharply from 654 thousand to 699 thousand..
Single-family starts increased 2.3% to 492 thousand in April. March was revised up to 481 thousand from 462 thousand.
Total starts are up 50% from the bottom, and single family starts are up 39% from the low.
This was above expectations of 690 thousand starts in April, and was especially strong given the upward revisions to prior months.
• Retail Sales increased 0.1% in April
On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.1% from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 6.4% from April 2011. Ex-autos, retail sales also increased 0.1% in April.Sales for March was revised down to a 0.7% increase from 0.8%, and February was revised down to 1.0% from 1.1%.
This graph shows monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
Retail sales are up 23.1% from the bottom, and now 7.7% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)
This was at the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 0.1% increase in April, and below the consensus for a 0.2% increase ex-auto.
• Industrial Production up in April, Capacity Utilization increases
This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12.4 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).Capacity utilization at 79.2% is still 1.1 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession levels of 80.6% in December 2007.
Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production increased in April to 97.4. March was revised down (so the month-to-month increase was greater than expected), and February was revised up.
The consensus was for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production in April, and for an increase to 79.0% (from 78.7%) for Capacity Utilization. This was above expectations.
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies decline in Q1
The MBA reported that 11.79 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q1 2012 (delinquencies seasonally adjusted). This is down from 11.96 percent in Q4 2011 and is the lowest level since 2008.This graph is from the MBA and shows the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state. Posted with permission.
The top states are Florida (14.31% in foreclosure), New Jersey (8.37%), Illinois (7.46%), Nevada (the only non-judicial state in the top 10 at 6.47%), and New York (6.17%).
As Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Education noted, the biggest problem is the number of loans in the foreclosure process. This is primarily a problem in states with a judicial foreclosure process. States like California and Arizona are now below the national average of percent of loans in the foreclosure process.
The second graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.Loans 30 days delinquent decreased to 3.13% from 3.22% in Q4. This is at about 2007 levels and around the long term average.
Delinquent loans in the 60 day bucket decreased to 1.21% in Q1, from 1.25% in Q4. This is the lowest level since Q4 2007.
There was a decrease in the 90+ day delinquent bucket too. This decreased to 3.06% from 3.11% in Q4 2011. This is the lowest level since 2008, but still way above normal (around 0.8% would be normal according to the MBA).
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased slightly to 4.39% from 4.38%.
• Regional manufacturing activity mixed in May Surveys
From the Philly Fed: May 2012 Business Outlook Survey
Firms responding to the May Business Outlook Survey indicated that manufacturing growth fell back from the pace of recent months. The survey’s broad indicators for general activity fell into negative territory for the first time in eight months. Indicators for new orders and employment also suggested slight declines from April.
From the NY Fed: May Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates manufacturing activity expanded at a moderate paceThe May Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity expanded in New York State at a moderate pace. The general business conditions index rose eleven points to 17.1.
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through May. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through April.
The NY and Philly Fed surveys went in opposite directions this month. The NY Fed survey showed stronger expansion; the Philly Fed survey indicated contraction. The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys declined in May, and is at the lowest level this year.
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 370,000
The DOL reports:In the week ending May 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 370,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 370,000. The 4-week moving average was 375,000, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average of 379,750.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 375,000.
The 4-week average has declined for two consecutive weeks. The average has been between 363,000 and 384,000 all year.
This was above the consensus of 365,000.
• AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicates contraction in April
From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Reverts to Negative TerritoryAfter five months of positive readings, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has fallen into negative terrain. ... The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the April ABI score was 48.4, following a mark of 50.4 in March.This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 48.4 in April. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects' services.
Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.
According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction. This is just one month - and as Baker noted, this might be payback for the mild weather earlier in the year - but this suggests CRE investment will stay weak all year (it will be some time before investment in offices and malls increases).
• Key Measures of Inflation in April
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.3% annualized rate) in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% (1.9% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.This graph shows the year-over-year change for core CPI, core PCE, median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.4%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.3%, and core CPI rose 2.3%. Core PCE is for March and increased 2.0% year-over-year.
...
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers was flat at 0.0% (0.4% annualized rate) in April. The CPI less food and energy increased 0.2% (2.9% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
These measures show inflation on a year-over-year basis is mostly still above the Fed's 2% target.
• Other Economic Stories ...
• NAHB Builder Confidence increases in May, Highest since May 2007
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April
• Greece: Election is June 17th
• Hotels: RevPAR increases 4.5% compared to same week in 2011
• State Unemployment Rates decline in 37 states in April
Posted on 19 May 2012 | 6:27 am
Van Rompuy Statement: "Stay the course" in Europe, "Pro-growth agenda" in JuneRemarks from Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council prior to the G8 summit:
This G8 summit comes at a time of significant challenges to the world economy, and for Europe in particular. As far as Europe is concerned, my message is straightforward: we are determined to stay the course. We will pursue our comprehensive strategy to decrease deficit and debts, and to return to growth and job creation, based on structural reforms, investments and trade. The European Council will discuss a pro-active growth agenda on the dinner on May 23 and we will finalize it on the European Council on 28-29 of June. In that respect it should not be forgotten that in aggregate terms growth in the Euro area is positive and picking up, while our external balances with the rest of the global economy are in equilibrium.The long awaited "growth agenda" will finalized in late June. Most likely too little, too late.
Recently, we have raised our firewalls and increased our contribution to the International Monetary Fund; we have also strengthened economic governance, recapitalised banks and provided ample bank liquidity through the European Central Bank. This week, finance ministers of the EU also made further significant progress in putting into European law the international Basel 3 agreements. We will do whatever is needed to guarantee the financial stability of the euro zone.
In parallel, most EU countries are engaged in very ambitious reforms to ensure debt sustainability, raise productivity and improve competitiveness. This is particularly the case in Spain - where the Government has embarked on a set of comprehensive reforms - and in Italy, as also positively recognized by the IMF after its consultation with Rome this week. I am confident they will succeed.
As regards Greece, I do not hide my concern about the current political uncertainty. Greece is a member of the EU and the Euro zone and this membership implies solidarity and responsibility. The Euro zone has shown considerable solidarity, supplying nearly € 150bn in loans to Greece so far. Alongside this support the EU is developing a huge effort to help reviving the Greek economic potential.
We do not question Greece's sense of responsibility and are hopeful that the next Greek government will act in accordance with the country's engagement and its European future. Continued reform is the best guarantee for the Greek economy and for a future of the Greek people in the euro area.
I'm not sure what Van Rompuy means by "aggregate growth in the Euro area is positive and picking up". According to Eurostat, "GDP remained stable in both the euro area1 (EA17) and the EU271 during the first quarter of 2012, compared with the previous quarter". Flat line isn't growth.
Although Van Rompuy expressed "concern" about Greece, he also said the EU will "do whatever is needed to guarantee the financial stability of the euro zone". It is important to remember that these guys are committed to the euro - and they will not give up easily.
Posted on 18 May 2012 | 7:13 pm
Bank Failure #24 in 2012: Alabama Trust BankTorpedoed in sea of debt
Sunk by crimson tide
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Southern States Bank, Anniston, Alabama, Assumes All of the Deposits of Alabama Trust Bank, National Association, Sylacauga, Alabama
As of March 31, 2012, Alabama Trust Bank, National Association had approximately $51.6 million in total assets and $45.1 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $8.9 million. ... Alabama Trust Bank, National Association is the 24th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Alabama.It may be small, but it still counts. It's Friday, Friday ...
Posted on 18 May 2012 | 4:26 pm
Grexit UpdateThe Greek election is still a month away ...
From the WSJ: EU Official: Greek Exit Plans Discussed
The European Commission and the European Central Bank are drawing up plans should Greece abandon the euro, Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht said in an interview published Friday, the first time a senior European Union official has acknowledged such preparations.Here are some comments from analysts at Nomura:
The ECB and the commission are "working on emergency scenarios in case Greece doesn't make it," Mr. De Gucht said in an interview with the Flemish newspaper De Standaard.
...
European Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn quickly countered Mr. De Gucht's comments about the contingency plans, saying: "We are not working on the scenario of a Greek exit. We are working on the basis of a scenario of Greece staying in."
• We expect the ECB to cut the refi rate to 0.50% in July with risks skewed towards less and later; a policy error in our view.And some other commentary:
• We assume that the eurozone crisis will escalate and further increase pressure on the ECB: ultimately we expect QE.
• Based on current political trends, a Greek euro-area exit looks probable rather than possible following the 17 June election.
From Paul Krugman at the NY Times: Apocalypse Fairly Soon
Right now, Greece is experiencing what’s being called a “bank jog” — a somewhat slow-motion bank run, as more and more depositors pull out their cash in anticipation of a possible Greek exit from the euro. Europe’s central bank is, in effect, financing this bank run by lending Greece the necessary euros; if and (probably) when the central bank decides it can lend no more, Greece will be forced to abandon the euro and issue its own currency again.From Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Closer to Colliding
This demonstration that the euro is, in fact, reversible would lead, in turn, to runs on Spanish and Italian banks. Once again the European Central Bank would have to choose whether to provide open-ended financing; if it were to say no, the euro as a whole would blow up.
Yet financing isn’t enough.
Can the Troika cave to Greece while remaining credible with other troubled economies? I doubt it - which I think increases the risk that the core of Europe will believe it necessary to create a moral hazard example out of Greece.From Michael Pettis: Europe’s depressing prospects
Of course, this worked so well with Lehman Brothers. We will just foget about that little detail for the moment.
Posted on 18 May 2012 | 11:46 am
State Unemployment Rates decline in 37 states in AprilFrom the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary
Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in April. Thirty-seven states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate decreases, five states posted rate increases, and eight states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty-eight states and the District of Columbia registered unemployment rate decreases from a year earlier, while only one state experienced an increase and one had no change.
...
Nevada continued to record the highest unemployment rate among the states, 11.7 percent in April [down from 12.0 in March]. Rhode Island and California posted the next highest rates, 11.2 and 10.9 percent, respectively. North Dakota again registered the lowest jobless rate, 3.0 percent, followed by Nebraska, 3.9 percent, and South Dakota, 4.3 percent.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). Every state has some blue - indicating no state is currently at the maximum during the recession.
The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. Only three states still have double digit unemployment rates: Nevada, Rhode Island, and California. This is the fewest since January 2009. In early 2010, 18 states and D.C. had double digit unemployment rates.
The states with the largest decrease in the unemployment rate are Michigan, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Ohio and Oregon. The states with the smallest improvement are New Jersey and New York.
Posted on 18 May 2012 | 8:33 am
Hotels: RevPAR increases 4.5% compared to same week in 2011From HotelNewsNow.com: St. Louis posts top occupancy, RevPAR gains
Overall, the U.S. hotel industry’s occupancy ended the week virtually flat with a 0.1% increase to 62.7%, ADR increased 4.5% to $105.85 and RevPAR jumped 4.5% to $66.35.Hotel occupancy and RevPAR have improved from 2011, and occupancy is back close to normal. However ADR is still 3% to 4% below the precession levels, and the same for RevPAR.
Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using a four week average.
Click on graph for larger image.The red line is for 2012, yellow is for 2011, blue is "normal" and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.
Looking forward, leisure travel usually increases over the summer months, and occupancy rates will rise. So far it looks like 2012 will have higher occupancy than 2011, but still mostly below the pre-rececession median. Hotels have come a long way since 2008 when I was writing about The Coming Hotel Bust. But it will be sometime before investment increases again.
Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com
Posted on 18 May 2012 | 6:49 am
Misc: Record Low Mortgage Rates, Spanish Banks downgraded, and moreThe only economic release schedule for Friday is the State Employment and Unemployment report for April.
• From Freddie Mac: Fixed Mortgage Rates Hit Record Lows Again
Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates again hitting new record lows. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 3.79 percent continues to remain well below 4 percent and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages are also slightly down at 3.04 percent.• From the WSJ: Ten-Year Treasury Yield Near Record Low
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.79 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending May 17, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.83 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.61 percent.
The benchmark note gained 18/32 in price by late-afternoon trading to yield 1.702% after sinking as far as 1.692%. The record low of 1.672% was matched in September and originally set in February 1946. Based on a 3 p.m. EDT finish, 1.702% would be the lowest yield ever to round out a session.• From the Financial Times: Spain moves to calm bank fears
Moody’s downgraded 16 Spanish banks, with three-notch cuts for the “Big Three” lenders – Santander, BBVA and La Caixa – and three small institutions left in “junk” territory, though the agency made no mention of Bankia.Earlier in the day there were unfounded rumors of a bank run in Spain.
It said the downgrades were prompted primarily by the deteriorating Spanish economy and the reduced credit-worthiness of the government.
Excerpt with permission
• The Asian markets are all red tonight. From MarketWatch: Asia stocks tumble as Spain joins list of fears
Japan’s Nikkei Stock fell 2.1%, South Korea’s Kopsi dropped 2.7%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index skidded 2.1%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 2%, and the Shanghai Composite index lost 0.7%.
Posted on 17 May 2012 | 9:08 pm
Greece: Election is June 17thThe election is a month away and Europe will support Greece financially through the next election, but no one knows what will happen at the end of June.
Until the election, the campaign rhetoric will be global front page news. Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras seems to think that Greece can stay in the euro and also break the bailout agreement. His opponents say a vote for Syriza is a vote to exit the euro.
From the AthensNews: Judge to lead Greece to critical eurozone vote
A senior judge was put in charge of an emergency government on Wednesday to lead Greece to new elections on June 17 and bankers sought to calm public fears after the president said political chaos risked causing panic and a run on deposits.The "run" on Greek deposits started in 2010, and deposits were already down about one-third before the recent run started. There won't be much left on June 17th.
European leaders who once denied vociferously that they were fretting over Greece leaving their currency union have given up pretence. Asked if he was concerned about a Greek exit, European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said simply: "No comment".
Citizens have been withdrawing hundreds of millions of euros from Greek banks in recent days, as the prospect of the country being forced out of the European Union's common currency zone seems ever more real ...
Right now Syriza is leading in the polls, but the election outcome is uncertain. From the WSJ: Greek Leftist Leader Throws Down Gauntlet on Debt
The head of Greece's radical left party says there is little chance Europe will cut off funding to the country and if it does, Greece will repudiate its debts ...I think Tsipras is both right and wrong. He is correct about the need for growth policies, but he might be misjudging the European policymakers who seem more and more willing to stop financing Greece.
A financial collapse in Greece would drag down the rest of the euro zone, says Alexis Tsipras, the 37-year-old head of ... Syriza ... Instead, he says, Europe must consider a more growth-oriented policy to arrest Greece's spiraling recession and address what he calls a growing "humanitarian crisis" facing the country.
"Our first choice is to convince our European partners that, in their own interest, financing must not be stopped," Mr. Tsipras said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. "If we can't convince them—because we don't have the intention to take unilateral action—but if they proceed with unilateral action on their side, in other words they cut off our funding, then we will be forced to stop paying our creditors, to go to a suspension in payments to our creditors."
Many people are asking: Will this be a Lehman moment? US policymakers had many months to prepare for the collapse of Lehman, and the Bush administration was still unprepared when it happened. Are the policymakers in Europe ready for Greece leaving the euro? They sure haven't inspired confidence so far ...
Posted on 17 May 2012 | 5:17 pm
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in AprilFrom economist Tom Lawler:
Based on local realtor/MLS reports I’ve seen so far, I estimate that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.53 million in April, up 1.1% from March’s pace, and up 7.9% from last April’s pace. As was the case in March, the “subdued” nature of April sales relative to “anecdotal” reports of significantly improved conditions in many markets across the country in part reflected the sized YOY decline in REO sales, which in turn were the result of sharply lower REO inventories.
On the inventory front, my and other’s tracking would suggest a monthly increase in the number of existing homes listing for sale of a bit over 2% in April. However, for some reason the NAR’s inventory number in April has for many years shown a much larger monthly gain than listings data might suggest, for reasons that aren’t clear to me. YOY, I’d estimate that existing home inventories were down by about 21% YOY in April, and if the NAR’s inventory number showed a 21% YOY decline, that would imply a monthly increase of around 6.8% (assuming March’s inventory number is not revised, though I suspect it will be revised upward a bit.)
On the median sales price front, the story for April was the sharp increase in the number of markets reporting YOY increases in median sales prices – in some areas some substantial gains. In many (though not all markets) one reason was substantial YOY declines in the “distressed” sales share of total sales, and especially declines in the foreclosure share of sales. In other areas, however, anecdotal evidence suggests that many areas were seeing “real” price increases, though one can’t rightly tell for sure based on median sales prices. Net, I estimate that the NAR’s median SF sales price will show a YOY increase of about 5.1% in April, which would be the largest YOY increase since May 2006. Of course, a 5.1% YOY gain in the SF MSP for April would still leave last months median sales price almost 26% below the median sales price in April 2006!
CR Note: As Lawler notes, the median sales price is impacted by the mix, so I use other measures to track prices.
Other measures of inventory suggest a much smaller increase in inventory in April. However, if reported inventory increases 6.8% that would be 2.53 million, with month-of-supply at 6.7 months, up from 6.3 in March.
The NAR is scheduled to report April existing home sales on Tuesday, May 22nd.
Posted on 17 May 2012 | 1:47 pm
RealtyTrac: Foreclosure activity declined in AprilThis was released earlier this morning by RealtyTrac: U.S. Foreclosure Activity Shifts Eastward in April
RealtyTrac® ... today released its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™ for April 2012, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 188,780 U.S. properties in April, the lowest monthly total since July 2007.First, by "Eastward", RealtyTrac really means a "shift to judicial foreclosure states".
April foreclosure activity decreased 5 percent from the previous month and was down 14 percent from April 2011. ...
"Rising foreclosure activity in many state and local markets in April was masked at the national level by sizable decreases in hard-hit foreclosure states like California, Arizona and Nevada,” said Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac. “Those three states, and several other non-judicial foreclosure states like them, more efficiently processed foreclosures last year, resulting in fewer catch-up foreclosures this year."
“In addition, more distressed loans are being diverted into short sales rather than becoming completed foreclosures,” Moore continued. “Our preliminary first quarter sales data shows that pre-foreclosure sales — typically short sales — are on pace to outnumber sales of bank-owned properties during the quarter in California, Arizona and 10 other states.”
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.Here is a repeat of a graph from the MBA showing the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state. See: Q1 MBA National Delinquency Survey Comments. According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure activity is picking up in the judicial states - and most of those are in the east.
Note: Graph posted with permission.
Last month, RealtyTrac was saying "The [foreclosure] dam may not burst in the next 30 to 45 days, but it will eventually burst, and everyone downstream should be prepared for that to happen". It is still early, but they seem to be backing off the "dam bursting" a little. As I noted earlier this year, Some thoughts on housing and foreclosures:
One of the "givens" for 2012 is that the number of foreclosures will increase following the mortgage servicer settlement agreement. But I've been wondering just how big that increase will be ... the increase might be less than many people expect.I reviewed some of the reasons that there might not be a huge flood. It is still early, but a combination of more short sales, more modifications, REO-to-rentals (including banks holding more REOs as rentals), underwater homeowners refinancing with HARP, and the slow process in judicial states will probably keep this from being a massive flood.
Posted on 17 May 2012 | 10:33 am
Philly Fed: Regional manufacturing activity contracted in May SurveyFrom the Philly Fed: May 2012 Business Outlook Survey
Firms responding to the May Business Outlook Survey indicated that manufacturing growth fell back from the pace of recent months. The survey’s broad indicators for general activity fell into negative territory for the first time in eight months. Indicators for new orders and employment also suggested slight declines from April.
...
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, fell from a reading of 8.5 in April to -5.8 in May. The index for new orders fell four points, from 2.7 to -1.2, its first negative reading in eight months.
...
The current employment index, which had been positive for eight consecutive months, decreased 19 points, to -1.3. ... Firms also reported a slight decrease in average hours worked compared with April.
Click on graph for larger image.Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through May. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through April.
The NY and Philly Fed surveys went in opposite directions this month. The NY Fed survey showed stronger expansion; the Philly Fed survey indicated contraction. The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys declined in May, and is at the lowest level this year.
Posted on 17 May 2012 | 8:11 am
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 370,000The DOL reports:
In the week ending May 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 370,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 370,000. The 4-week moving average was 375,000, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average of 379,750.The previous week was revised up from 367,000 to 370,000.
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.
Click on graph for larger image.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 375,000.
The 4-week average has declined for two consecutive weeks. The average has been between 363,000 and 384,000 all year.
And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:
This was above the consensus of 365,000.
Posted on 17 May 2012 | 6:38 am
Look Ahead: Weekly Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing SurveyOn Thursday:
• The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released at 8:30 AM. The consensus is for claims to be essentially unchanged at 365 thousand compared to 367 thousand last week. Based on the consensus (and the usual upward revision to the previous week), the 4-week average will probably decline to below 375 thousand.
• At 10:00 AM, the Philly Fed Survey for May is scheduled for release. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 8.5 last month (above zero indicates expansion). This is the 2nd regional Fed survey for May; the NY Fed (Empire state) survey indicated faster expansion in May.
• Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board Leading Indicators for April will be released. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in this index.
Earlier:
• Housing Starts increase to 717,000 in April
• Industrial Production up in April, Capacity Utilization increases
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies decline in Q1
• Q1 MBA National Delinquency Survey Comments
Posted on 16 May 2012 | 7:55 pm
Some thoughts on Apartments and RentsJust over two years ago we started discussing how the environment was becoming more favorable for apartment owners. This was based on several factors:
• Favorable demographics: a large cohort was moving into the low 20s to mid-30s age group. (see graph of age groups at "Rents soar")
• There were a record low number of multi-family housing units being started, meaning very few completions in 2010 and 2011.
• A large number of families were losing their homes in foreclosure, or through a short sales, and many of these families were becoming renters. (limited new supply)
• The price-to-rent ratio favored renting.
Sure enough, the vacancy rate for apartments declined sharply over the last two years, and rents have been rising.
Looking forward, the environment will be a little less favorable for apartments owners in a year or two. Demographics will still be favorable for several more years, but it appears completions might start catching up to absorption in a year or two (based on some comments and projections today from Reis director of research Victor Canalog on a webinar).
Below is an update to a graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction are also important for employment).
This graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.
Click on graph for larger image.
The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions.
The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) has been increasing since mid-2010. The 12 month total for completions (red line) is now following starts up. This suggests that completions (new supply) will increase sharply in 2013 and 2014, although this will still be below the level for the pre-bust period.
Other factors that might make the environment less favorable for apartment owners are:
• More investor buying of single family homes as rentals.
• Fewer foreclosures in 2013 and beyond.
• Wages not keeping up with rent increases.
• House prices are now back to "normal" levels in many areas based on rents. Further rent increases will start pushing more renters to buy (those that can qualify).
These are just some preliminary thoughts - right now conditions remain very favorable for apartment owners as indicated by the recent NMHC apartment survey and Reis quarterly survey.
Earlier:
• Housing Starts increase to 717,000 in April
• Industrial Production up in April, Capacity Utilization increases
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies decline in Q1
• Q1 MBA National Delinquency Survey Comments
Posted on 16 May 2012 | 5:37 pm
AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicates contraction in AprilNote: This index is a leading indicator for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.
From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Reverts to Negative Territory
After five months of positive readings, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has fallen into negative terrain. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the April ABI score was 48.4, following a mark of 50.4 in March. This score reflects a decrease in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 54.4, down from mark of 56.6 the previous month.
“Considering the continued volatility in the overall economy, this decline in demand for design services isn’t terribly surprising,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Also, favorable conditions during the winter months may have accelerated design billings, producing a pause in projects that have moved ahead faster than expected.”
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 48.4 in April. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects' services.
Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.
According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction. This is just one month - and as Baker noted, this might be payback for the mild weather earlier in the year - but this suggests CRE investment will stay weak all year (it will be some time before investment in offices and malls increases).
Posted on 16 May 2012 | 3:37 pm
Report: Housing Inventory declines 18.9% year-over-yearFrom Realtor.com: April 2012 Real Estate Data
On the national level, inventory of for-sale single family homes, condominiums, townhouses and co-ops declined by -18.85% in April 2012 compared to a year ago, and declined in all but five of the 146 markets covered by Realtor.com.Realtor.com also reports that inventory was up 2.0% from the March level.
Inventory usually increases seasonally from March to April. Over the last 11 years, the average increase was close to 9% since many people typically list their homes in the spring, hoping to move during the summer months. If the NAR also reports a 2% increase, this would be the smallest increase in inventory from March to April since the year 2000.
The NAR is scheduled to report April existing home sales and inventory on Tuesday, May 22nd. Economist Tom Lawler told me he expects to have a preliminary estimate of April existing home sales tomorrow.
Earlier:
• Housing Starts increase to 717,000 in April
• Industrial Production up in April, Capacity Utilization increases
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies decline in Q1
• Q1 MBA National Delinquency Survey Comments
Posted on 16 May 2012 | 2:27 pm
FOMC Minutes: "Several members indicated that additional monetary policy accommodation could be necessary" if economy slowsThe Fed's program to "extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities" (aka Operation Twist) is schedule to end in June. Now analysts are looking for clues about the possibility of QE3.
Although there was no discussion of easing alternatives, several members indicated they'd support additional monetary policy accommodation if the economy slows. This was an increase from a "couple" members in the previous meeting.
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 24-25, 2012 . Excerpt:
Several members indicated that additional monetary policy accommodation could be necessary if the economic recovery lost momentum or the downside risks to the forecast became great enough.Earlier:
• Housing Starts increase to 717,000 in April
• Industrial Production up in April, Capacity Utilization increases
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies decline in Q1
• Q1 MBA National Delinquency Survey Comments
Posted on 16 May 2012 | 12:00 pm
Q1 MBA National Delinquency Survey CommentsA few comments from Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Education, and Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President, Vice President of Research and Economics, on the conference call.
• All delinquency categories were down in Q1, both seasonally adjusted (SA) and NSA.
• The 30 day delinquency rate is back to normal (at the long term average). (This means a normal amount of loans are going delinquent each month)
• This was the largest quarter-to-quarter drop in delinquencies in history (there is usually a large seasonal drop in Q1, but this was larger than normal).
• The biggest problem is the number of loans in the foreclosure process. This is primarily a problem in states with a judicial foreclosure process. States like California and Arizona are now below the national average of percent of loans in the foreclosure process.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph is from the MBA and shows the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state. Posted with permission.
The top states are Florida (14.31% in foreclosure), New Jersey (8.37%), Illinois (7.46%), Nevada (the only non-judicial state in the top 10 at 6.47%), and New York (6.17%).
As Jay Brinkmann noted, California (3.29%) and Arizona (3.57%) are now below the national average and improving quickly.
The second graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.
Loans 30 days delinquent decreased to 3.13% from 3.22% in Q4. This is at about 2007 levels and around the long term average.
Delinquent loans in the 60 day bucket decreased to 1.21% in Q1, from 1.25% in Q4. This is the lowest level since Q4 2007.
There was a decrease in the 90+ day delinquent bucket too. This decreased to 3.06% from 3.11% in Q4 2011. This is the lowest level since 2008, but still way above normal (around 0.8% would be normal according to the MBA).
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased slightly to 4.39% from 4.38%.
A final comment: I asked about the impact of the mortgage settlement (signed on April 5th, after Q1 ended). Jay Brinkmann said that servicers might have been waiting for the settlement and that might have "built up" the in-foreclosure rate in Q1. The two key categories to watch for the impact of the settlement are the in-foreclosure and 90+ days delinquent buckets.
To reiterate: the key problem remains the very high level of seriously delinquent loans and loans in the foreclosure process.
Note: the MBA's National Delinquency Survey (NDS) covers about "42.8 million first-lien mortgages on one- to four-unit residential properties" and is "estimated to cover around 88 percent of the outstanding first-lien mortgages in the market." This gives about 5.7 million loans delinquent or in the foreclosure process.
Posted on 16 May 2012 | 9:19 am
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies decline in Q1The MBA reported that 11.79 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q1 2012 (delinquencies seasonally adjusted). This is down from 11.96 percent in Q4 2011 and is the lowest level since 2008.
From the MBA: Delinquencies Decline in Latest MBA Mortgage Delinquency Survey
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.40 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the first quarter of 2012, a decrease of 18 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2011, and a decrease of 92 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate decreased 121 basis points to 6.94 percent this quarter from 8.15 percent last quarter.Note: 7.40% (SA) and 4.39% equals 11.79%.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the fourth quarter was 0.96 percent, down three basis points from last quarter and down 12 basis points from one year ago. The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the first quarter was 4.39 percent, up one basis point from the fourth quarter and 13 basis points lower than one year ago. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 7.44 percent, a decrease of 29 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 66 basis points from the first quarter of last year.
...
“Mortgage delinquencies normally fall during the first quarter of the year, but the declines we saw were even greater than the normal seasonal adjustments would predict, so delinquencies are clearly continuing to improve. Newer delinquencies, loans one payment past due as of March 31, are down to the lowest level since the middle of 2007, indicating fewer new problems we will need to deal with in the future. The percentage of loans three payments or more past due, the loans that represent the backlog of problems that still need to be handled, is down to the lowest level since the end of 2008. Foreclosure starts are at their lowest level since the end of 2007,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics.
...
"The problem continues to be the slow-moving judicial foreclosure systems in some of the largest states. While the rate of foreclosure starts is essentially the same in judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states, the percent of loans in the foreclosure process has reached another all-time high in the judicial states, 6.9 percent. In contrast, that rate has fallen to 2.8 percent in non-judicial states, the lowest since early 2009. As the foreclosure starts rate is essentially the same in both groups of states, that difference is due entirely to the systems some states have in place that effectively block timely resolution of non-performing loans and is not an indicator of the fundamental health of the housing market or the economy. In fact, hard-hit markets like Arizona that have moved through their foreclosure backlog quickly are seeing home price gains this spring."
I'll have more later after the conference call this morning.
Posted on 16 May 2012 | 8:02 am
Industrial Production up in April, Capacity Utilization increasesFrom the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production increased 1.1 percent in April. Output is now reported to have fallen 0.6 percent in March and to have moved up 0.4 percent in February; previously, industrial production was estimated to have been unchanged in both months. Manufacturing output increased 0.6 percent in April after having decreased 0.5 percent in March. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, which increased nearly 4 percent, manufacturing output moved up 0.3 percent, and output for all but a few major industries increased. Production at mines rose 1.6 percent, and the output of utilities gained 4.5 percent after unseasonably warm weather in the first quarter held down demand for heating. At 97.4 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for April was 5.2 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry moved up to 79.2 percent, a rate 3.1 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12.4 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).
Capacity utilization at 79.2% is still 1.1 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession levels of 80.6% in December 2007.
Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production increased in April to 97.4. March was revised down (so the month-to-month increase was greater than expected), and February was revised up.
The consensus was for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production in April, and for an increase to 79.0% (from 78.7%) for Capacity Utilization. This was above expectations.
Posted on 16 May 2012 | 7:33 am
Housing Starts increase to 717,000 in AprilFrom the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000. This is 2.6 percent (±14.8%)* above the revised March estimate of 699,000 and is 29.9 percent (±15.2%) above the revised April 2011 rate of 552,000.
Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 492,000; this is 2.3 percent (±11.9%)* above the revised March figure of 481,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 217,000.
Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 715,000. This is 7.0 percent (±1.0%) below the revised March rate of 769,000, but is 23.7 percent (±1.9%) above the revised April 2011 estimate of 578,000.
Single-family authorizations in April were at a rate of 475,000; this is 1.9 percent (±1.1%) above the revised March figure of 466,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 217,000 in April.
Click on graph for larger image.Total housing starts were at 717 thousand (SAAR) in April, up 2.6% from the revised March rate of 699 thousand (SAAR). Note that March was revised up sharply from 654 thousand.
Single-family starts increased 2.3% to 492 thousand in April. March was revised up to 481 thousand from 462 thousand.
The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.
This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that total housing starts have been increasing lately after moving sideways for about two years and a half years. Total starts are up 50% from the bottom, and single family starts are up 39% from the low.
This was above expectations of 690 thousand starts in April, and was especially strong given the upward revisions to prior months.
The housing recovery continues.
Posted on 16 May 2012 | 6:30 am
Look Ahead: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Mortgage Delinquencies, FOMC MinutesWednesday will be another busy day:
• Housing starts for April will be released at 8:30 AM. Total housing starts were at 654,000 in March, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and single-family starts were at 462,000. This was a decline from the February rate, but most of the decline was related to the volatile multi-family sector. Based on housing permits, starts probably rebounded in April. The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 690,000 (SAAR) in April.
• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production in April, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.0% (from 78.6%).
• At 10:00 AM, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is scheduled to release the 1st Quarter 2012 National Delinquency Survey (NDS). This provides a breakdown of mortgage delinquencies by number of days delinquent, type of loan, and by state. Since the mortgage settlement was signed off on April 5th, there probably wasn't any impact on Q1 delinquencies. I'll be on the conference call at 10:30 AM and pass along any comments about the settlement, HARP, house prices, etc.
• At 2 PM, the FOMC Minutes for the meeting of April 24-25 will be released. From Goldman Sachs on things to look for:
We expect that the April FOMC minutes ... will include a discussion of possible easing options. ... The first set of options center around the Fed's balance sheet, and we think that the discussion might include the benefits of mortgage purchases, the potential for more “twisting,” and the pros and cons of sterilized asset purchases.• Also on Wednesday, the MBA will release the weekly mortgage applications survey, and the AIA will release the Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
For the monthly economic question contest:
Posted on 15 May 2012 | 7:16 pm